It’s easily the most anticipated earnings report of the season and it’s arguably the most important stock in global indices. Nvidia reports its financial results after US markets close today in what is a pivotal moment for broader markets. Record highs in US stock indices mask narrow breadth within the market as a whole, with gains being boosted by the Tech sector. The Nvidia release often moves indices and the entire global tech sector, not just Nvidia, as sentiment will impact the AI trend. So, can the giant chipmaker continue beating already high expectations?
The Jensen Huang-led company powers the global AI boom with dominant AI chips and explosive data centre demand driving strong long-term growth potential. That makes this report a key sentiment check on whether enthusiasm around AI infrastructure is accelerating again or has possibly peaked. Last week, NVDA briefly hit an all-time high and was worth a jaw-dropping $5.5 trillion – the biggest company in the world by market cap. The stock has risen more than 18% this year, that compares with +7% on the benchmark S&P 500.
What Wall Street is expecting
Consensus forecasts point to Q1 2026 revenue of about $78.5 billion, up from $68.1 billion in Q4, with data centres expected to contribute more than $73 billion of that total. Earnings per share are seen at $1.75, up from $1.62 in the fourth quarter, while gross margins around 74.5% will be watched for evidence of sustained pricing power versus rising input costs. Looking ahead, analysts expect Q1 2027 revenue of roughly $87 billion. The chipmaker exceeded revenue expectations in all prior four quarters, so a beat is expected.
Key areas to watch
Guidance from Nvidia on expected earnings and revenue in the months and year ahead will show how much hyperscaler spending Nvidia is capturing, data centre revenue growth and demand from its major cloud customers. Multiple hyperscalers have recently raised their projected capital expenditures for 2026. But Meta and Microsoft are both investing in custom AI chips while Broadcom is capturing more of the market. Any updates on China restrictions, AI demand trends, or supply constraints will also be in focus.
Ultimately, this is not just about Nvidia, it is a live check on whether the AI boom remains intact. The megacap remains the “picks-and-shovels” provider to the AI build-out, combining chip dominance and a powerful infrastructure ecosystem. But investors are increasingly asking how long that exceptional growth rate can last. Indeed, the stock dropped over 5% last time even on strong beats, due to profit-taking, concerns around stretched valuations and the market’s ever-rising expectations for Nvidia’s growth.
Options predict Nvidia could move +/ 5.8% in the trading session after the release on Thursday. The tech titan will probably need to beat consensus and offer strong guidance to provide assurance to the bulls and another push higher up to the record high at $236.54.