Nvidia reports earnings after US markets close today, in what many see as the most important results release of the season. As the world’s largest company by market value, the giant chipmaker’s numbers routinely move not just its own stock, but major indices and the broader technology sector. That means this is a high-impact event, with options markets implying potential post-earnings move for NVDA of around 5.6% in either direction. This is actually smaller than in previous years, but the megacaps’ 8% weighting in the benchmark S&P 500 index is still hugely significant.
Nvidia’s guidance is closely watched as a real-time barometer of global AI spending. The company sits at the centre of the AI investment cycle, so its outlook often shapes expectations for earnings growth across the wider market. While the stock has risen roughly 18-fold since late 2022 and the launch of Chat GPT, momentum has cooled recently, with shares up only 3.4% so far in 2026 and lagging several peers over the past six months. That makes this report a key sentiment check on whether enthusiasm around AI infrastructure is accelerating again or has possibly peaked.
What Wall Street Is Expecting
Consensus forecasts point to Q4 2025 revenue of about $65.7 billion, with data centres expected to contribute close to $60 billion of that total. Earnings per share are seen at $1.52, while gross margins around 75% will be watched for evidence of sustained pricing power versus rising input costs. Looking ahead, analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of $71.7 billion and Q1 2027 revenue of roughly $75 billion. The critical variables are demand for AI chips, exposure to the Chinese market, and the impact of memory and component shortages on supply and costs.
The Bigger Picture
Beyond the headline numbers, traders will focus on commentary around hyperscaler spending, supply readiness, and whether Nvidia can continue to meet intense demand, as cloud giants explore their own in-house chip designs. The tech sector has recently faced pressure from valuation concerns and the sheer scale of AI investment plans, while shortages and higher component costs threaten margins.
This earnings report is therefore more than a NVDA event, it’s a gauge of whether the AI engine driving the bull market is still running at full speed. Nvidia remains the quintessential “picks-and-shovels” provider to the AI build-out, combining chip dominance, a powerful software ecosystem, and high-margin data-centre demand. But investors are increasingly asking how long that exceptional growth rate can last.
Chart wise, near-term resistance sits just above around $195, with the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages below at $185.11 and $186.18. The record high, when the chipmaker hit a $5 trillion market cap, printed in late October at $212.19. With some investor worries around AI stocks still lingering, Nvidia will probably need to beat consensus and offer strong guidance to provide meaningful reassurance. The downside risks to global risk sentiment from a miss appear larger than the upside from a beat.