In Brief: major data releases of the week
Tuesday, 28 April 2026
– Bank of Japan Meeting: Consensus expects the BoJ to remain on hold amid the Middle East uncertainty. The bank’s quarterly outlook is likely to show upward revisions to inflation and modest downwards adjustments to GDP. But growth will probably be forecast to remain above potential, supporting rate hikes soon.
Wednesday, 29 April 2026
– Bank of Canada Meeting: The bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% with core inflation broadly in line with its target and the jobless rate relatively steady. Traders price in about a hike and a half by year-end. No explicit policy guidance is likely, but the policy rate will probably lean hawkish.
– FOMC Meeting: In truth, not much is expected from this meeting, Chair Powell’s swan song. There will be no new projections or dot plot, with the recent March dots showing the median vote leaned towards one rate cut in 2026. Key is whether energy pressures feed into core inflation?
Thursday, 30 April 2026
-ECB Meeting: The ECB is fully expected to maintain steady rates. A first hike is predicted by markets in June, with around 58bps priced in for 2026. Lagarde is likely to keep a data dependent stance given officials’ absence of urgency to act and lack of new information.
– Bank of England Meeting: Policymakers will keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% amid a still heavily divided MPC. More data is likely required for action, but money markets price in just over two 25bps rate hikes by end-2026. Rate setters must balance weakness in economic growth and the labour market with potential second round inflation effects.
Friday, 01 May 2026
-US ISM Manufacturing: A small pick up is forecast though this may be due to front running price increases linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Labour market signals could turn softer among cautiousness in businesses.
