In Brief: major data releases of the week
Tuesday, 21 April 2026
– UK Jobs: The labour market was fragile before the Middle East shock. Unemployment is expected to stay steady at 5.2% but private sector wage growth is seen falling. A slide in real wages may cause the jobless rate to rise going forward.
– US Retail Sales: Higher gasoline prices will lift the headline figure. That means focus will be on the core ‘control’ metric that strips out gasoline and autos among other components. The K-shaped economy will likely show up, with higher income households continuing to outspend lower income budgets. Tax refunds should support spending.
Wednesday, 22 April 2026
– UK CPI: Consensus predicts the headline rate at 3.3% from 3.0%, boosted by higher petrol and heating oil prices. The core reading is seen steady at 3.2%. Services inflation, which the BoE watches as a gauge of longer-term inflation pressures, had dipped to 4.2% in February, the lowest print since March 2022.
Thursday, 23 April 2026
-Global PMIs: These private sector surveys are forecast to decline again after the March series had already started to fall. Price components will be watched as they could offer clues on whether energy costs are filtering in to other prices and potentially second round effects. PMIs can be tricky to interpret when volatility is high.
Friday, 24 April 2026
-Japan CPI: Consensus expects a modest rebound after February’s cooling. Headline CPI is seen rising to 1.5% y/y from 1.3%, while core is projected to return to 2.0% from 1.6%, back at the Bank of Japan’s formal target. February’s weakness was partly driven by government utility subsidies, while March may reflect renewed energy pass-through amid higher global oil prices linked to Middle East tensions.
-UK Retail Sales: The energy shock is expected to hit consumer confidence and household disposable income due to high fuel prices. That means and slower discretionary growth and major purchases could be put off with concern around the Middle East conflict.
