In Brief: major data releases of the week
Tuesday, 12 May 2026
– US CPI: April headline inflation is forecast to rise 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y from 0.9% and 3.3% respectively. Core, which strips out volatile food and energy prices will print modestly higher than prior at 0.3% and 2.7%. The March annual headline reading was the highest since May 2024, lifted by the war-driven energy shock. The Fed will focus on secondary passthrough, which may take some time to show up.
Thursday, 14 May 2026
-President Trump/Xi Beijing Summit: This is the first of four planned meetings between the two Presidents in the next 12 months, a historic frequency. Easing tensions are key with geopolitical and trade issues to the fore. Agricultural purchases, tech and rare earth curbs will also be in focus with both sides wanting to be seen as ‘winners’.
– US Retail Sales: The headline figure is forecast to print at 10k, marginally lower than the prior 14.1k, and the jobless rate is seen steady at 6.7%. The economy is being hit from higher energy prices and US tariffs. The recent BoC meeting left options open with rates at the lower end of neutral.
