In Brief: major data releases of the week
Monday, 18 May 2026
– China Data: The economy remains relatively lacklustre due to muted domestic demand amid ongoing real estate issues. Fixed asset investment could slow further to 1.6%, retail sales are expected to fall below 2%, but industrial production should edge up to 6% supported by strong external demand.
Tuesday, 19 May 2026
– UK Jobs: Unemployment is expected to tick down one-tenth to 4.8% though there are still reliability concerns. Average earnings (ex-bonus) are forecast at 3.1%, with the ongoing downtrend seen continuing while CPI rises due to higher energy costs.
Wednesday, 20 May 2026
– UK CPI: The headline and core rates are both expected to fall to 3.1% and 2.7% respectively. April services inflation is predicted to ease to 3.5% from 4.5%. The declines are due to household energy bills dropping on account of government action in the 2025 budget. Rising fuel prices will offset this. There’s currently around a 35% chance of a 25bps BoE rate hike at its mid-June meeting with 80bps over the next 12 months.
– FOMC Minutes: The meeting was Jerome Powell’s final one and likely to show growing support within the FOMC to drop its easing bias. The split vote was unusual and historic, and possibly a signal to the incoming Chair Warsh who is expected to want to cut rates early in his tenure.
Thursday, 21 May 2026
-Australia Jobs: Consensus expects 17.5k jobs to be added in April, similar to the prior print, though the easter holidays may impact. Some focus will be on the composition, so full-time or part-time jobs after March’s skew towards strength in the former. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.9%, with the fall at the start of the year proving temporary. Strong data would push the current odds of a near one in five chance of a June rate rise higher.
– Global PMIs: Eurozone data is likely to point to weaker momentum in the economy at the start of the second quarter. This is the dilemma faced by the ECB as the energy shock is pushing inflation higher. The UK composite is expected at 51.7, down from 52.6, as the prior front-loading boost from Iran war fears unwinds.
Friday, 22 May 2026
-Japan’s CPI: This May data is shaping up as a key BoJ input, with consensus core CPI at 1.7% and core-core (favoured by policymakers) at 2.2%, though upside risks are building after a sharp PPI rise to 4.9% highlighting rising pass-through pressure. The weak JPY and higher import costs remain the dominant inflation drivers, with focus on service inflation. There’s a 78% chance of a rate hike at the June 16 BoJ meeting.
-UK Retail Sales: Sales activity is likely to fall due to the timing of Easter, with food and big-ticket items hit. But frontloading of fuel sales may offset this as motorists headed into the Middle East conflict.
