In Brief: major data releases of the week
Tuesday, 5 May 2026
– RBA Meeting: Consensus expects the RBA to deliver its third straight 25bps hike, lifting the cash rate back to its previous peak at 4.35%. Money markets see a 78% chance of this and around 65bps of tightening by year end. Already-elevated inflation is set to rise, and pass-through effects of higher fuel costs are starting. Staff forecasts will be published.
– US Non-Manufacturing Services ISM: April non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to move lower to 53.7 from the prior 54.0 amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and surging oil costs. Focus will be on the price gauges, as they are a leading indicator of incoming inflation, and any ongoing weakness in the employment sub-index.
Friday, 08 May 2026
-US Non-Farm Payrolls: The headline is expected to print at around 62k jobs in April, down from the prior 178k, which was boosted by returning healthcare strikers. The 3-month average sits at 68k and at 20k since January 2025. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.3% and wage growth is seen one-tenth higher at 0.3%. Weather, health hiring and revisions make this report especially tough to call.
– Canada Jobs: The headline figure is forecast to print at 10k, marginally lower than the prior 14.1k, and the jobless rate is seen steady at 6.7%. The economy is being hit from higher energy prices and US tariffs. The recent BoC meeting left options open with rates at the lower end of neutral.
