In Brief: major data releases of the week
Wednesday, 27 May 2026
– Australia CPI: April CPI is forecast to remain elevated at 4.4% y/y due to travel and clothing, though this should be offset by falling transport costs. Any signs of second round effects will be keenly watched by the RBA. The bank recently highlighted the risk of de-anchored inflation expectations. Hotter than expected figures, with the headline holding near or above about 4.5%, would reinforce the risk of further tightening. Markets previously priced an August RBA hike at about 75%, although a pause is now the base case following recent soft Australian jobs data.
– RBNZ Meeting: The RBNZ is expected to leave the OCR steady at 2.25% for a third straight meeting. Recent data has been mixed with annual inflation above the 1-3% target range at 3.1%, but unemployment unexpectedly easing to 5.3%. Some officials may see the need to remove monetary stimulus at this meeting amid a challenging economic outlook.
Thursday, 28 May 2026
-US Core PCE: The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge is predicted to rise 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y. The annual print would be the hottest since 2022. The April Fed meeting highlighted that a majority would support rate hikes if inflation remains above target. There’s currently near a 70% chance of a 25bps move by year-end.
Friday, 29 May 2026
-Tokyo CPI: This data is the forerunner to nationwide inflation. CPI is predicted to rise modestly as underlying price pressures continue to build, amid sticky services inflation. Hot data would likely cement BoJ rate hike expectations at next month’s meeting. But a softer print would support a more cautious stance and likely weigh on JPY. Wage pass-through remains the key swing factor for policymakers at present.
