In Brief: major data releases of the week
Monday, 2 March 2026
-US ISM Manufacturing: February manufacturing activity is expected to tick down to 51.5 from 52.6. Activity in January expanded for the first time in 12 months but was boosted by post-holiday reordering, and the employment index stayed in contractionary territory. The recent ramp up in trade pressures may drag this time, while prices paid likely remain elevated due to rising oil prices.
Tuesday, 3 March 2026
-Eurozone Inflation: Consensus sees the headline ticking up one-tenth to 1.8% which would be just below the ECB forecast of 1.9%. Core should come in steady around 2.2% with service inflation just above 3%. The ECB is in a ‘good place’ for now regarding monetary policy with no changes expected for some time.
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
-US ISM Services: February non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to move lower to 53.5 from a previously unchanged 53.8. Regional Fed surveys point to a modestly softer picture while trade tensions have also increased. The services sector accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity.
Friday, 6 March 2026
-US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus expects 60k jobs to be added in February, below the prior 130k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.3% and wage growth is seen one-tenth lower at 0.3%. Other recent labour market gauges have steadied though the lack of breadth of job creation is concerning some economists.
-US Retail Sales: Consensus expects the headline to fall 0.3% versus the prior flat print. Consumers typically pull back after the holiday season plus colder weather likely further weighed on activity. The control group figure was likely driven by clearance sales.
