In Brief: major data releases of the week
Monday, 6 April 2026
– ISM Services: March non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to move lower to 54.9 from the prior 56.1. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility is expected to hurt consumer and business sentiment. On the flip side, cost pressures are likely to rise higher from already elevated prices.
Wednesday, 8 April 2026
– RBNZ Meeting: Consensus expects rates will be kept on hold at 2.25%. Second round inflation effects are key for all central bankers at present. Will officials look through the impact of higher energy prices on near-term inflation? There are no updated economic forecasts.
– FOMC Minutes: Focus will be on the range of views and which side of the dual mandate most officials are more concerned about. The meeting was deemed moderately hawkish but there is increased uncertainty amid the fog of war.
Thursday, 9 April 2026
-US Core PCE inflation: is widely seen as the Fed’s favourite measure, is expected by consensus to remain broadly unchanged at 3%.
Friday, 10 April 2026
– US CPI: March inflation is forecast to show both the headline and core prints rising 0.3% m/m. But the annual headline print is expected to rise 3.2% from the prior 2.4% due to higher energy costs. Rising producer and factory input prices may impact core data in the months ahead. The consensus forecast is looking for March headline CPI inflation to jump to 0.9% m/m, up from 0.3% in February. That would push the annual rate from 2.4% to above 3%. Core CPI inflation is expected to remain largely unimpacted by the war for now, rising 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y.
– Canada Jobs The March figures come after a bleak previous report which showed nearly 84k jobs lost. Trade and tariff issues, along with the Middle East conflict pose ongoing risks to the creaking labour market.
