In Brief: major data releases of the week

Tuesday, 17 March 2026

-RBA Meeting: Money markets see a 65% chance of a 25bps rate hike, that would take the cash rate to 4.1%. Recent inflation, growth and labour market data has been strong, while RBA comments have also signalled a possible move. That said, current global uncertainty gives officials a chance to assess inflationary pressures. AUD broke to the upside last week to a near 4-year high, but that was also near a long-term top from January 2023 at 0.7203 so resistance.

Wednesday, 18 March 2026

– Bank of Canada Meeting: Rates will be kept on hold at 2.25%. Friday’s headline jobs figure showed the biggest monthly drop since January 2022, while inflation cooled in January. Money markets predict the first rate hike will be in October. CAD has been relatively strong versus its peers, but not the greenback. A possible triple bottom has formed in the major with an upside target around above 1.39.

– FOMC Meeting: The Fed will sit on its hands leaving rates at 3.5-3.75%. After cutting rates 75bp over the final three policy meetings of 2025, the January meeting saw officials adopt a slightly more hawkish stance by removing comments around downside risks to employment. But the recent NFP print was negative, and the war-driven energy price surge will likely see stagflation enter the conversation. We get updated dot plots, and this is Chair Powell’s penultimate FOMC meeting. The dollar index is near an important top from November at 100.39.

Thursday, 19 March 2026

– Australia Jobs: Employment is forecast to rise by around 20k signalling jobs growth moving past its trough after late-2025 volatility. The unemployment rate is predicted to hold at 4.1%, though recent declines have largely reflected lower participation rather than materially stronger hiring.

– UK Jobs: The January jobless rate is seen steady at 5.2% with unchanged to slightly cooler wage growth. The data will be overshadowed by the ongoing Middle East situation and associated energy upside. However, a soft or in-line report would keep the bias for at least one 2026 cut alive.

– Bank of Japan Meeting: Consensus expects rates to be kept steady at 0.75%. The focus will be on commentary around the spring wage negotiations and Iran conflict hit to inflation expectations. JPY moves are probably more about global risk sentiment and US yields near term, rather than fresh BoJ surprises. For rate setters, the bigger story is whether incoming wage deals and inflation stick high enough to justify one or two more small hikes later this year.

– ECB Meeting: The deposit rate will remain at 2% but hints around upside risks to inflation due to higher energy costs will be the focus. February’s outdated inflation data was already hotter than expected. Will Lagarde shift the current ‘good place’ policy into something more hawkish? If she sounds more balanced, stressing weak growth and data‑dependence, the “one‑and‑done” hike pricing for this year could fade. EUR/USD closed near its weekly lows and through a swing low from November at 1.1468. Next major support sits at August 2025 lows at 1.1391

– Bank of England Meeting: Markets fully expect the MPC to maintain rates at 3.75%. With high energy prices erasing any hopes of a cut at this meeting, officials will probably keep their options open, with a 7-2 split likely. GBP and Gilts will move most on how clearly the statement flag the first cut window. Cable fell to 3.5-month lows on Friday with next support below 1.32.