In Brief: major data releases of the week
Tuesday, 31 March 2026
– RBA Minutes: The minutes should reinforce a hawkish message as inflation is still too hot, oil is a risk, and the Board is probably not done yet. Even with a narrow 5-4 vote, the debate as per Governor Bullock’s post-meeting press conference was about the timing of the rate hike, not direction, so expectations are for a firm “higher for longer” tone.
– Eurozone Inflation: Consensus sees the headline ticking up to 2.6% from 1.9% in February. The core is forecast to remain steady at 2.4%. The ECB’s ‘good place’ policy seems over with higher energy prices lifting the headline prints. Markets prices in around a 65% chance of an April rate hike. Inflation expectations and second round effects are crucial.
Wednesday, 1 April 2026
– US Retail Sales: Analysts expect the headline to rise 0.4% and ex autos 0.3%. Solid gains should be driven by higher vehicle sales and a jump in gasoline prices. Going forward, the risk is that continued higher energy prices are demand destructive and hurt consumer activity.
– US ISM Manufacturing: March manufacturing activity is expected to stay stable at 52.3 signalling moderate growth. Regional surveys have been mixed though interestingly, European manufacturing surveys have started to outperform services with notably stronger order books.
Friday, 3 April 2026
– US Non-Farm Payrolls: The headline is expected to print at around 50k jobs in March, above the prior -92k but below January’s 130k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.4% and wage growth is seen one-tenth lower at 0.3%. Bad weather and strikes depressed the February data so watch for revisions.
– US ISM Services: Non-manufacturing PMI hit an 11-month low in February still just in expansionary territory at 51.1. New business growth softened and export sales fell more sharply. The outlook hit the weakest levels since October which contrasts with manufacturing. The flip side saw prices charged rising to their highest since August 2022.
